One Step Forward, One Step Back

Bringing you the latest updates on Bitcoin Treasury Stocks…..

We are publishing one day early this week.

Let’s dive into this week’s details.

In today’s issue:

BITCOIN

BTC showed a slight cooling trend on Wednesday, closing at $90,197.13.

This marks a 1.27% gain year-to-date, though the asset has faced some pressure this week, declining 6.34% over the last seven days.

While the price has retreated from the $98,000 highs seen mid-month, it maintains a base above the $90,000 level, which analysts are watching closely for signs of a new support floor.

STRATEGY (MSTR)

MSTR closed the session at $163.81, reflecting a 1.95% gain year-to-date.

Strategy continues to exhibit a high beta relative to Bitcoin (historically around 1.34), meaning it typically amplifies Bitcoin's percentage moves in both directions.

This performance follows the company's disclosure on January 12 that it acquired an additional 13,627 BTC for approximately $1.25 billion, bringing its total holdings to 687,410 BTC.

Despite the recent pullback of 7.38% this week, the stock remains resilient compared to its late-2025 lows, aided by MSCI's decision to keep the firm in its flagship indexes.

BITWISE BITCOIN STANDARD CORPORATIONS ETF

The OWNB ETF, which tracks corporations adopting a "Bitcoin Standard" (with MSTR as its largest holding at roughly 13.39%), closed today at $24.32, maintaining a solid 4.35% gain year-to-date.

The ETF’s movement is heavily influenced by the "leveraged Bitcoin" performance of its top holdings like MSTR and MARA Holdings.

The rally in Bitcoin-standard equities coincides with a new Bitwise survey showing that crypto allocations by financial advisors hit an all-time high in late 2025, providing a tailwind of institutional interest for 2026.

For those of you not familiar with the Bitwise ETF, you can check out the details on the Bitwise site

BACK TO SUPPORT LEVELS

This week was a punch in the face after that great breakout that we had last week.

This is disappointing.

We are now back to that key support level around $90,000.

In fact, we are slightly below the level on the chart that is support from around January 8th.

STILL MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION

We're definitely moving in the right direction, but clearly we've got some back-and-forth to do here.

We continue to see a decoupling between gold and Bitcoin.

It is odd that gold is now at an all-time high around $4,900 yet Bitcoin is just not participating yet.

Time will tell, but we keep our fingers crossed that Bitcoin will join the party with gold and silver in the next few weeks and months ahead.

The recent price action in MSTR highlights its role as a high-leverage vehicle for Bitcoin exposure.

After hitting a local peak of $179.33 on January 14, the stock has undergone a sharp 8.6% correction to its current level of $163.81.

This pullback is a textbook example of the stock's "amplification" effect; while Bitcoin's decline from its recent highs was significant, MSTR’s descent was nearly double in magnitude, reflecting the aggressive unwinding of leveraged positions by momentum traders.

Technically, the stock is currently searching for a firm floor within the $157 to $162 range, an area that has provided structural support multiple times throughout the first three weeks of January.

The ability of the stock to hold the $160 psychological level despite the broader crypto market's cooling is being viewed by analysts as a sign of underlying institutional accumulation.

If the stock can stabilize here, it sets the stage for a retest of the $175 resistance level, which has capped several recovery attempts over the last week.

Despite the short-term retreat, MSTR’s price action remains constructive on a year-to-date basis, outperforming the raw percentage gains of Bitcoin itself (1.95% vs 1.27%).

This "outperformance in a sideways market" suggests that investors are increasingly valuing the company's aggressive treasury expansion, such as the January 12 acquisition of 13,627 BTC.

For now, the stock is in a "wait-and-see" mode, tightly coiled and waiting for a definitive move in Bitcoin to dictate its next leg—either a breakdown toward the $150 floor or a breakout back toward the $180 handle.

🥇 First Place: Way to go!

🥈 Not Bad: There’s room to improve

😝 No Bueno: You’re the last guy on the Deal Team

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