Roller Coaster Ride!

Bringing you the latest updates on Bitcoin Treasury Stocks…..

Let’s dive into this week’s details.

In today’s issue:

BTC showed a defensive posture today, declining 0.21% to reach $84,222.71 by the week’s close

This represents its lowest level since late December 2025 and marks a 4.41% decline year-to-date, with the asset falling 2.38% over the last week.

The move toward the $84,000 threshold is viewed by analysts as a critical test of support; staying above this level is essential to prevent a shift in sentiment that could turn former support into new resistance.

MSTR managed to decouple and outperform the underlying asset today, closing at $149.71, an increase of 4.55%.

Strategy continues to exhibit a high beta relative to Bitcoin (historically around 1.34), meaning it typically amplifies Bitcoin's percentage moves in both directions.

This rally follows the company's disclosure on January 12 that it acquired an additional 13,627 BTC for approximately $1.25 billion, bringing its total holdings to 687,410 BTC.

Despite today's rebound, the stock remains down 8.89% year-to-date and has declined over 12% this week, though it continues to be aided by MSCI's decision to keep the firm in its flagship indexes.

Despite a massive unrealized loss reported for Q4 2025 due to late-year volatility, the stock has gained over 13% recently, aided by MSCI's decision to keep the firm in its flagship indexes.

For those of you not familiar with the Bitwise ETF, you can check out the details on the Bitwise site

The OWNB ETF, which tracks corporations adopting a "Bitcoin Standard" (with MSTR as its largest holding at roughly 13.39%), fell 2.12% today to close at approximately $21.85.

The ETF’s movement is heavily influenced by the "leveraged Bitcoin" performance of its top holdings like MSTR and MARA Holdings.

The rally in Bitcoin-standard equities has cooled significantly in late January, with the ETF now down 2.20% year-to-date, reflecting a broader retreat in institutional crypto interest for 2026.

Over the last three months, Bitcoin (BTC) has transitioned from a period of "six-figure" euphoria into a significant multi-month correction.

Based on the data from November 2025 through January 30, 2026, the price action can be divided into three distinct phases:

The period began with Bitcoin at its cycle high of $110,026.94 on November 2.

However, the month was defined by a severe and rapid liquidation event.

BTC failed to hold the psychologically critical $100,000 level, ending the month down 17.13%.

This phase represented a "regime shift" where the market moved from aggressive price discovery to a defensive, risk-off posture.

The velocity of the decline suggests a massive unwinding of leveraged long positions that had been built up during the rally to $110k.

After the volatility of November, December was a month of relative exhaustion and sideways trading.

The asset opened at $86,461.39 and finished at $87,691.92, a marginal gain of 1.42%.

During this time, the market attempted multiple rallies back toward the $90,000 mark but lacked the institutional volume to sustain a breakout.

This period is now viewed as a "bear flag" consolidation—a temporary pause in a larger downtrend rather than a true reversal.

January 2026 saw a return of selling pressure.

While the month featured a mid-month spike toward $98,000 (peaking around January 14-16), those gains were quickly erased.

The second half of the month saw a steady decline, with BTC losing 4.61% overall for the month and hitting a new period low of $84,222.71 on January 30.

The price action over the last 90 days indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a primary downtrend.

The inability to hold the $90,000 level at the end of January is a bearish signal, as it suggests that what was once a support floor in December has now flipped into a resistance ceiling.

Technical traders are now eyeing the $80,000 to $82,000 range as the next major area of historical support.

Maintaining the current $84,000 level is vital to preventing a further slide back toward the mid-2025 trading ranges.

The price action for MSTR in the final week of January has been characterized by intense volatility and a search for a definitive price floor.

After descending from its mid-month peak of nearly $180, the stock hit a local bottom of $143.19 on January 29th before staging a sharp 4.55% recovery to end the week at $149.71.

This rebound indicates aggressive buying interest near the 52-week lows, even as Bitcoin remains under selling pressure, suggesting a potential decoupling or "value hunting" by investors at these depressed levels.

Technically, MSTR remains in a precarious position as it trades below its 2026 opening price of $157.16.

The stock's performance this week (down 12.21%) highlights the "double-edged sword" of its leverage; the same beta that fueled the rally to $179 earlier this month has accelerated the current drawdown.

Traders are now looking to the $143–$150 zone as the primary battlefield between bulls and bears; a sustained hold above this level would form a double-bottom structure, while a break lower would expose the stock to its late-2025 support levels.

The volume profile during this week's dip shows significant participation, particularly during the rebound from the $143 handle.

As the stock remains down 8.89% year-to-date, its recovery is contingent on a stabilization in Bitcoin's price action.

However, the stock's ability to end the week on a positive note while the broader crypto market was flat to down indicates that institutional buyers may be viewing the sub-$150 range as a compelling entry point relative to the firm's increasing Bitcoin-per-share holdings.

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